According to a recently released Duke University/ CFO Magazine survey, 54% of CFO’s believe we are already in a recession. While that number fluctuates from one survey to another the trend has been moving steadily to those CFO’s, Economists, Business leaders, etc… increasingly believing we’ve already entered a recession.

While Recruiters in general remain relatively optimistic I believe it is increasingly based on our not wanting to give in to a recession lest we exacerbate its severity by not “consuming”. However, on a more careful assessment we see the following signs:

- More companies than normal putting new hiring initiatives on hold than in anytime during 2007.

- Companies that are continuing to hire are exercising more caution in their hiring and taking considerably longer to come to a decision.

- Fewer firms talking about expansion plans for later in the year.

All this amounts to a greater cause for concern and skepticism about the economy for the remainder of 2008. What does this mean for the I.T Pro? Several things are important to keep in mind:

- While the number of firms hiring is down today from 3 months ago do remember that 2007 was the best year for IT pros by far since 2000.

- Seek out companies that experience a competitive advantage due to the slowing economy and poor performance of the dollar against the Euro and the Yen (Manufacturing firms in particular are doing well with the dollar so weak it makes US goods a relative bargain!).

- Seek out more stable industries less likely to experience serious reductions in force. Life Insurance is considered part of the Financial Services sector but they have considerably less exposure to the Mortgage crisis compared with their Banking and Investment House competitors.

- Seek out those industries that are well positioned to capitalize on larger demographic dynamics (Life Insurance firms are Retirement Investment Income firms! Healthcare can only grow in the face of the aging population)

- Investigate firms in markets with strong future growth potential (“Green Companies,” etc.).

The takeaway is simple. While a slowdown is upon us and a recession could be imminent, that doesn’t mean you should bury your head in the sand and hope not to get laid off. Great career opportunities will exist for those intelligent enough to seek them and those focused enough to make the right moves. As always, consult your trusted Recruiter for advice J